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CPI > HY

Let's hope that inflation is transitory as the YoY change in CPI now exceeds the yields of both the 10-yr U.S. Treasury AND BofA's U.S....

More Margin

Borrowing in brokerage margin accounts continues to increase along with the gains in the stock market. Margin debit balances grew $84...

Record Job Openings

Job openings nearly match the unemployment level. The JOLTS latest reading for job openings was a record 9.29 million people compared...

Copper/Gold Ratio

The Copper/Gold ratio as a leading indicator of interest rates, a favorite of DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, surged higher after reaching...

U.S. Oil Rigs

The U.S. Oil Rig Count from Baker Hughes rebounded to 356 last week (May 21st) from the low last August of 172. However, the count is...

April Sector Shifts

The S&P 500 had great back-to-back months with the index up 4.24% in March and up 5.24% in April. Plus, every sector, style, and size...

Strong Trend and Recovery

Stock market trend and momentum have been strong since 2020 lows. Not only has the S&P 500 reached new highs but the index level is well...

Drought Conditions

Drought conditions are especially severe in the Southwest region but some key farm areas also are experiencing extensive drought. Most of...

Implied Vol & HY Spread

Implied volatility continues to drop along with the recent string of record highs for US stocks. Credit risk, measured by the high yield...

Huge 12-Month Equity Returns

With the anniversary of the stock market lows behind us, let's review just how much of a rebound occurred in both large and small-cap...

DUCs in a Row

With WTI Crude Oil price above $65, let's take a look at some underlying fundamentals. The pandemic and its lockdown crushed demand last...

Small-cap & Crude winners YTD

Small-caps and crude oil have been the big winners YTD. The Russell 2000 index and the April WTI Crude Oil futures contract had strong...

Junk No Longer High Yield

Junk bonds are no longer high yield bonds. The chart tracks the recent history of the yields on the broader high yield index (red line)...

Rate Spread Rising

Interest rates, especially the long end of the curve, have been edging up from the lows of 2020. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (orange...

Money + Margin

Structural market developments are leading to extraordinary moves in markets. We have seen highly shorted stocks, such as GameStop and...

Sector Shifts

Equities continue to perform well with the S&P 500 recording positive returns in both December and YTD 1/20/21. The chart highlights S&P...

Velocity and M1

I'm going old school here with a chart of M1 (blue) and the velocity of M1 (orange). The fiscal and monetary responses last year pushed...

Is It Time for Commodities?

While stocks had a very good year in 2020, many commodities also did well. The top chart highlights how commodities have performed versus...

Banks Reserved and Ready

Banks have underperformed YTD as the KBW Bank Index is down 16.9% while the S&P 500 is up 13.4% through Friday 12/11. U.S. banks entered...

Big November Returns

November returns were exceptional for equities. A string of positive vaccine news following the election boosted sentiment and...