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NatGas on Fire

Natural gas is now at $7.30 MMBtu compared with $3.73 at the end of December and $2.62 a year ago. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and...

Crude Oil Rig Counts

The U.S. oil drilling rig count is now at 527, up from 480 at the end of 2021. The count is still well below the 800 level reached in...

Ukraine/Russia Big Grain Exporters

Some futures contracts for wheat and corn have traded limit up in recent days with the invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are both...

NatGas and Electricity

Energy is again a focus of the world following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much of Europe has become dependent on Russian natural...

Stock/Bond Correlations

The S&P 500 fell 5.26% in January while a common benchmark for bonds, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, also declined. The iShares...

IPO FYI

Last year was a record for initial public offerings (IPOs). The U.S. market saw 309 traditional IPOs from operating companies plus...

December Trends Continue

Although the broader equity indices began the year with some weakness, value continued its outperformance from December. The top chart...

Happy New Year!

New year, new Fed, new markets. Following the 27% gain in the S&P 500 for 2021, the markets are digesting the recent high inflation...

Oats and Wheat prices up on Drought

In a follow-up to my post in April regarding drought conditions and potential impact on crop prices, many agricultural prices have surged...

Rate Increases & Equities

While the Fed has signaled it likely will begin tapering their purchases of bonds, the YoY change in the 10-year treasury already...

Seasonality of Equities

Here is my contribution to the discussion of the seasonality of monthly returns for equities. The chart shows, for the S&P 500, the...

Stocks v. Gold

While equity valuations may appear appropriate versus the 10-yr Treasury yield of 1.20%, prices relative to gold are at recent highs. The...

CPI > HY

Let's hope that inflation is transitory as the YoY change in CPI now exceeds the yields of both the 10-yr U.S. Treasury AND BofA's U.S....

More Margin

Borrowing in brokerage margin accounts continues to increase along with the gains in the stock market. Margin debit balances grew $84...

Record Job Openings

Job openings nearly match the unemployment level. The JOLTS latest reading for job openings was a record 9.29 million people compared...

Copper/Gold Ratio

The Copper/Gold ratio as a leading indicator of interest rates, a favorite of DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, surged higher after reaching...

U.S. Oil Rigs

The U.S. Oil Rig Count from Baker Hughes rebounded to 356 last week (May 21st) from the low last August of 172. However, the count is...

April Sector Shifts

The S&P 500 had great back-to-back months with the index up 4.24% in March and up 5.24% in April. Plus, every sector, style, and size...

Strong Trend and Recovery

Stock market trend and momentum have been strong since 2020 lows. Not only has the S&P 500 reached new highs but the index level is well...

Drought Conditions

Drought conditions are especially severe in the Southwest region but some key farm areas also are experiencing extensive drought. Most of...