John Pickart
HY and Spreads
Last year, I highlighted the drop in yields on treasuries and corporate high yield bonds. Now that rates have rebounded, those...
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John Pickart
- Apr 14
- 1 min
NatGas on Fire
Natural gas is now at $7.30 MMBtu compared with $3.73 at the end of December and $2.62 a year ago. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and...
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John Pickart
- Mar 14
- 1 min
Crude Oil Rig Counts
The U.S. oil drilling rig count is now at 527, up from 480 at the end of 2021. The count is still well below the 800 level reached in...
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John Pickart
- Mar 1
- 1 min
Ukraine/Russia Big Grain Exporters
Some futures contracts for wheat and corn have traded limit up in recent days with the invasion of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are both...
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John Pickart
- Feb 25
- 1 min
NatGas and Electricity
Energy is again a focus of the world following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much of Europe has become dependent on Russian natural...
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John Pickart
- Feb 3
- 1 min
Stock/Bond Correlations
The S&P 500 fell 5.26% in January while a common benchmark for bonds, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, also declined. The iShares...
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John Pickart
- Jan 19
- 1 min
IPO FYI
Last year was a record for initial public offerings (IPOs). The U.S. market saw 309 traditional IPOs from operating companies plus...
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John Pickart
- Jan 11
- 1 min
December Trends Continue
Although the broader equity indices began the year with some weakness, value continued its outperformance from December. The top chart...
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John Pickart
- Jan 7
- 2 min
Happy New Year!
New year, new Fed, new markets. Following the 27% gain in the S&P 500 for 2021, the markets are digesting the recent high inflation...
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John Pickart
- Oct 27, 2021
- 1 min
Oats and Wheat prices up on Drought
In a follow-up to my post in April regarding drought conditions and potential impact on crop prices, many agricultural prices have surged...
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John Pickart
- Sep 30, 2021
- 1 min
Rate Increases & Equities
While the Fed has signaled it likely will begin tapering their purchases of bonds, the YoY change in the 10-year treasury already...
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John Pickart
- Sep 16, 2021
- 1 min
Seasonality of Equities
Here is my contribution to the discussion of the seasonality of monthly returns for equities. The chart shows, for the S&P 500, the...
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John Pickart
- Aug 6, 2021
- 1 min
Stocks v. Gold
While equity valuations may appear appropriate versus the 10-yr Treasury yield of 1.20%, prices relative to gold are at recent highs. The...
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John Pickart
- Jul 13, 2021
- 1 min
CPI > HY
Let's hope that inflation is transitory as the YoY change in CPI now exceeds the yields of both the 10-yr U.S. Treasury AND BofA's U.S....
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John Pickart
- Jun 30, 2021
- 1 min
More Margin
Borrowing in brokerage margin accounts continues to increase along with the gains in the stock market. Margin debit balances grew $84...
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John Pickart
- Jun 11, 2021
- 1 min
Record Job Openings
Job openings nearly match the unemployment level. The JOLTS latest reading for job openings was a record 9.29 million people compared...
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John Pickart
- Jun 4, 2021
- 1 min
Copper/Gold Ratio
The Copper/Gold ratio as a leading indicator of interest rates, a favorite of DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, surged higher after reaching...
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John Pickart
- May 26, 2021
- 1 min
U.S. Oil Rigs
The U.S. Oil Rig Count from Baker Hughes rebounded to 356 last week (May 21st) from the low last August of 172. However, the count is...
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John Pickart
- May 4, 2021
- 1 min
April Sector Shifts
The S&P 500 had great back-to-back months with the index up 4.24% in March and up 5.24% in April. Plus, every sector, style, and size...
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John Pickart
- Apr 22, 2021
- 1 min
Strong Trend and Recovery
Stock market trend and momentum have been strong since 2020 lows. Not only has the S&P 500 reached new highs but the index level is well...
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