John PickartApr 81 minDrought ConditionsDrought conditions are especially severe in the Southwest region but some key farm areas also are experiencing extensive drought. Most of...
John PickartApr 81 minImplied Vol & HY SpreadImplied volatility continues to drop along with the recent string of record highs for US stocks. Credit risk, measured by the high yield...
John PickartMar 251 minHuge 12-Month Equity ReturnsWith the anniversary of the stock market lows behind us, let's review just how much of a rebound occurred in both large and small-cap...
John PickartMar 111 minDUCs in a RowWith WTI Crude Oil price above $65, let's take a look at some underlying fundamentals. The pandemic and its lockdown crushed demand last...
John PickartMar 21 minSmall-cap & Crude winners YTDSmall-caps and crude oil have been the big winners YTD. The Russell 2000 index and the April WTI Crude Oil futures contract had strong...
John PickartFeb 111 minJunk No Longer High YieldJunk bonds are no longer high yield bonds. The chart tracks the recent history of the yields on the broader high yield index (red line)...
John PickartFeb 41 minRate Spread RisingInterest rates, especially the long end of the curve, have been edging up from the lows of 2020. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (orange...
John PickartJan 281 minMoney + MarginStructural market developments are leading to extraordinary moves in markets. We have seen highly shorted stocks, such as GameStop and...
John PickartJan 211 minSector ShiftsEquities continue to perform well with the S&P 500 recording positive returns in both December and YTD 1/20/21. The chart highlights S&P...
John PickartJan 141 minVelocity and M1I'm going old school here with a chart of M1 (blue) and the velocity of M1 (orange). The fiscal and monetary responses last year pushed...
John PickartJan 71 minIs It Time for Commodities?While stocks had a very good year in 2020, many commodities also did well. The top chart highlights how commodities have performed versus...
John PickartDec 14, 20201 minBanks Reserved and ReadyBanks have underperformed YTD as the KBW Bank Index is down 16.9% while the S&P 500 is up 13.4% through Friday 12/11. U.S. banks entered...
John PickartDec 2, 20201 minBig November ReturnsNovember returns were exceptional for equities. A string of positive vaccine news following the election boosted sentiment and...
John PickartNov 19, 20201 minSector Relative ReturnsSector leadership has changed in recent months. Some attribute the shift to positive news on the vaccine front since the election but the...
John PickartNov 13, 20201 minA Look at RiskRisk in equity and bond markets have dropped to near pre-spring COVID-19 lockdowns. Implied volatility in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100...
John PickartNov 5, 20201 minLarge > SmallLarge-cap stocks continue to outperform small-caps this year on a rolling 12-month basis. The S&P 500 index (blue line) increased 11.8%...
John PickartOct 22, 20201 minTreasury DurationThere have been many discussions on whether bonds, particularly U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, will continue to provide diversification...
John PickartOct 15, 20201 minFastenal Sequential ImprovementHere is an update to my previous posts on Fastenal, a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies. It is only one...
John PickartOct 8, 20201 minDrought ContinuesDrought conditions continue to worsen across much of the U.S. with 44% of land area now at some level of drought. If the abnormally dry...
John PickartOct 2, 20201 minCoffee KlatchCoffee prices have been volatile in the last year, with the contract for December 2020 futures exceeding $1.45 in late 2019 and dropping...