John Pickart5 days ago1 minVelocity and M1I'm going old school here with a chart of M1 (blue) and the velocity of M1 (orange). The fiscal and monetary responses last year pushed M...
John PickartJan 71 minIs It Time for Commodities?While stocks had a very good year in 2020, many commodities also did well. The top chart highlights how commodities have performed versus...
John PickartDec 14, 20201 minBanks Reserved and ReadyBanks have underperformed YTD as the KBW Bank Index is down 16.9% while the S&P 500 is up 13.4% through Friday 12/11. U.S. banks entered ...
John PickartDec 2, 20201 minBig November ReturnsNovember returns were exceptional for equities. A string of positive vaccine news following the election boosted sentiment and expectatio...
John PickartNov 19, 20201 minSector Relative ReturnsSector leadership has changed in recent months. Some attribute the shift to positive news on the vaccine front since the election but the...
John PickartNov 13, 20201 minA Look at RiskRisk in equity and bond markets have dropped to near pre-spring COVID-19 lockdowns. Implied volatility in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 edge...
John PickartNov 5, 20201 minLarge > SmallLarge-cap stocks continue to outperform small-caps this year on a rolling 12-month basis. The S&P 500 index (blue line) increased 11.8% f...
John PickartOct 22, 20201 minTreasury DurationThere have been many discussions on whether bonds, particularly U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, will continue to provide diversification a...
John PickartOct 15, 20201 minFastenal Sequential ImprovementHere is an update to my previous posts on Fastenal, a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies. It is only one compa...
John PickartOct 8, 20201 minDrought ContinuesDrought conditions continue to worsen across much of the U.S. with 44% of land area now at some level of drought. If the abnormally dry c...
John PickartOct 2, 20201 minCoffee KlatchCoffee prices have been volatile in the last year, with the contract for December 2020 futures exceeding $1.45 in late 2019 and dropping ...
John PickartSep 25, 20201 minNASDAQ-100 Vol.Volatility of the NASDAQ-100 spiked in the spring and quickly fell as stocks rebounded. However, volatility (orange line) remained elevat...
John PickartSep 18, 20201 minCrude Production & StocksAlthough U.S. crude oil production dropped dramatically from highs early this year, crude stocks continue at levels above seasonal averag...
John PickartSep 10, 20201 minHigh Yield Spread falls to 10-yr AverageThe high yield spread (red line) has fallen from March highs to near its 10-year average of 4.96%. The spread peaked this year on March 2...
John PickartSep 3, 20201 minGrowth vs. ValueGrowth stocks have outperformed value on a trailing 12-month basis by the largest differential since the dot-com bubble. The return of th...
John PickartAug 26, 20201 minHurricane Laura near RefineriesHurricane Laura Cat 4 as it approaches coast near Texas/Louisiana border. From an energy infrastructure perspective, the likely path will...
John PickartAug 20, 20201 minA Dry SummerDrought conditions persist in much of western U.S. Besides the headlines coming out of California, some other key areas are experiencing ...
John PickartAug 18, 20201 minCommodities v. StocksEquities continue to outperform commodities. During the last decade commodities have not only lagged stocks but have absolute declines in...
John PickartAug 14, 20201 minUsed Car Prices ReboundThere has been a significant rebound in used car prices from the lows in April. According to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, prices...
John PickartAug 13, 20201 minGold Vol.Gold volatility, as measured by the gold etf, has come off of highs but still elevated compared with recent history (black line). Vol als...